KDI, 올해 성장률 전망 3.2%로 상향…경상흑자 3600억 달러 전망

KDI Raises This Year's Growth Forecast to 3.2% and Sees a $360 Billion Current-Account Surplus

Part of the August 19, 2026 daily edition

국책연구기관인 한국개발연구원(KDI)이 올해 우리나라 경제성장률 전망치를 3.2%로 높였습니다. 지난 5월에 내놓은 전망치 2.5%보다 0.7%포인트 높인 것입니다. 내년 성장률 전망치도 0.5%포인트 올려 2.2%로 조정했습니다. 경상수지는 반도체 수출액이 크게 늘면서 올해와 내년 모두 3600억 달러 흑자를 낼 것으로 전망했습니다. 올해 설비투자는 7.9%, 수출은 8.7% 늘어날 것으로 봤습니다. 다만 취업자 수는 올해 11만 명 늘어나는 데 그칠 것으로 예상했습니다.

Translation

The Korea Development Institute (KDI), a state-funded research body, has raised its forecast for this year's growth rate to 3.2 percent. That is 0.7 percentage points higher than the 2.5 percent it forecast last May. It also revised next year's growth forecast up by 0.5 percentage points, to 2.2 percent. On the current account, KDI expects a surplus of 360 billion dollars in both this year and next, helped by a sharp rise in semiconductor exports. Facility investment is expected to grow 7.9 percent this year and exports 8.7 percent. That said, it expects the number of people in work to rise by only 110,000 this year.

Vocabulary

전망치명사forecast figure, projection
상향명사upward revision, raising
경상수지명사current account balance
흑자명사surplus, being in the black
설비투자명사facility investment, capital spending
취업자명사person in work, employed person
그치다동사to stop at, to come to no more than

Grammar points

-(으)ㄹ 것으로 전망하다to forecast that ~

A fixed frame for reporting a projection. The clause before it takes the -(으)ㄹ 것 form, and the whole thing says an institution expects that outcome. Swap 전망하다 for 예상하다 or 보다 and the structure does not change.

Example: 수출은 8.7% 늘어날 것으로 전망했습니다.

It forecast that exports would grow 8.7 percent.

N보다than N, compared with N

Attaches to the thing being compared against. In statistics writing the baseline comes first with 보다, then the new figure: 2.5%보다 0.7%포인트 높은 3.2%.

Example: 지난 5월 전망치 2.5%보다 0.7%포인트 높습니다.

It is 0.7 percentage points higher than the 2.5 percent forecast last May.

다만however, that said

Opens a sentence that qualifies what was just said without overturning it. Weaker than 그러나 — it adds a reservation rather than a reversal, which is why it often introduces the one bad number in a run of good ones.

Example: 다만 취업자 수는 11만 명 늘어나는 데 그칠 것으로 예상했습니다.

That said, it expects the number of people in work to rise by only 110,000.

KDI, 올해 성장률 전망 3.2%로 상향…경상흑자 3600억 달러 전망

Translation

Vocabulary

Grammar points

-(으)ㄹ 것으로 전망하다to forecast that ~

N보다than N, compared with N

다만however, that said

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